When Safe Superintelligence (SSI) releases its first AI model
This snapshot shows a condensed version of Mantic's analysis — the full breakdown is available in the Mantic app. The live forecast may have changed.
Chance by 5 Aug 2027
37.5%
As of 5 Aug 2026, 12:12 UTC
Probability by date
Full accessRationale
Full accessMy 25th percentile prediction for Safe Superintelligence (SSI) to release its first AI model is 13th October 2026, driven by a projected summer/autumn 2026 launch window adjusted for technical slippage and the integration of Nvidia’s Vera Rubin hardware.
Forecast record
Forecast context
Gavin Baker recently declared that SSI was going to release their first model in August 2026.
Clarifications
This resolves to the date Safe Superintelligence (SSI) publicly releases its first AI model for general public access. A release counts only if SSI makes the model available outside the company, such as via a public demo, API, downloadable weights, or other public access. Internal-only use, private testing, or announcements without public access do not count.
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