Stamped snapshot5 Aug 2026, 14:14

This snapshot shows a condensed version of Mantic's analysis — the full breakdown is available in the Mantic app. The live forecast may have changed.

When Safe Superintelligence (SSI) releases its first AI model

Gavin Baker recently declared that SSI was going to release their first model in August 2026. Clarifications: This resolves to the date Safe Superintelligence (SSI) publicly releases its first AI model for general public access. A release counts only if SSI makes the model available outside the company, such as via a public demo, API, downloadable weights, or other public access. Internal-only use, private testing, or announcements without public access do not count.
Published Aug 5, 2026 12 PM · Reliable information cutoff date: Aug 5, 2026 10 AM

Cumulative probability by date

0%25%50%75%100%Oct 2026Jan 2027Apr 2027Jul 2027Oct 2027Jan 2028Apr 2028Jul 2028

My 25th percentile prediction for Safe Superintelligence (SSI) to release its first AI model is 13th October 2026, driven by a projected summer/autumn 2026 launch window adjusted for technical slippage and the integration of Nvidia’s Vera Rubin hardware.

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