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Stamped snapshot12 Aug 2026, 13:37

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Will the Bank of Japan raise its policy interest rate above 1% in 2026?

Clarifications: Resolves Yes if the Bank of Japan announces an increase to its primary policy interest rate target, such that the target rate is strictly greater than 1.00% at any point between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026. If the target rate is equal to 1.00%, it resolves No.
Published Aug 12, 2026 12 PM · Reliable information cutoff date: Aug 12, 2026 10 AM
Probability of event happening beforeDec 31, 2026, 00:00 UTCis89.5%

Cumulative probability by date

0%25%50%75%100%Oct 2026Jan 2027Apr 2027Jul 2027Oct 2027Jan 2028Apr 2028Jul 2028
31 Dec 2026
89.5% cumulative
SummaryOne page

I predict an 89% probability that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates above 1% in 2026, driven by a hawkish policy shift fueled by record wage growth and persistent inflationary pressures.

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Will the Bank of Japan raise its policy interest rate above 1% in 2026? | Mantic