Will the Bank of Japan raise its policy interest rate above 1% in 2026?
This snapshot shows a condensed version of Mantic's analysis — the full breakdown is available in the Mantic app. The live forecast may have changed.
Chance by 31 Dec 2026
89.5%
As of 12 Aug 2026, 12:10 UTC
Probability by date
Rationale
Full accessI predict an 89% probability that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates above 1% in 2026, driven by a hawkish policy shift fueled by record wage growth and persistent inflationary pressures.
Forecast record
Forecast context
Clarifications
Resolves Yes if the Bank of Japan announces an increase to its primary policy interest rate target, such that the target rate is strictly greater than 1.00% at any point between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026. If the target rate is equal to 1.00%, it resolves No.
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