The winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
This snapshot shows a condensed version of Mantic's analysis — the full breakdown is available in the Mantic app. The live forecast may have changed.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
60.3%
As of 24 Jul 2026, 07:42 UTC
Outcome probabilities
Rationale
Full accessI predict a 60% probability of victory for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the 2026 election, driven by record-low unemployment and a fragmented opposition that has failed to consolidate around a single viable challenger.
Forecast record
Forecast context
Clarifications
Resolves to the candidate who is officially certified by the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) as the winner of Brazil's 2026 presidential election. If a runoff is held, the certified winner after the runoff counts. If no candidate is certified because the election is annulled or otherwise not concluded with a certified winner, the answer is 'Another outcome'. If the certified winner is not one of the named candidates, the answer is 'Any other candidate'.
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