Stamped snapshot24 Jul 2026, 07:51

This snapshot shows a condensed version of Mantic's analysis — the full breakdown is available in the Mantic app. The live forecast may have changed.

The winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election

Clarifications: Resolves to the candidate who is officially certified by the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) as the winner of Brazil's 2026 presidential election. If a runoff is held, the certified winner after the runoff counts. If no candidate is certified because the election is annulled or otherwise not concluded with a certified winner, the answer is 'Another outcome'. If the certified winner is not one of the named candidates, the answer is 'Any other candidate'.

Published date: Jul 24, 2026 7 AM · Reliable information cutoff date: Jul 24, 2026 5 AM

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

60.3%

Flávio Bolsonaro

25.3%

Ronaldo Caiado

2.8%

Romeu Zema

1.5%

Renan Santos

6.5%

Any other candidate

3.1%

Another outcome

0.5%

Summary One page

I predict a 60% probability of victory for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the 2026 election, driven by record-low unemployment and a fragmented opposition that has failed to consolidate around a single viable challenger.

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