The # of seats the Republican Party wins in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections
This snapshot shows a condensed version of Mantic's analysis — the full breakdown is available in the Mantic app. The live forecast may have changed.
Most likely value
201 seats
As of 3 Aug 2026, 10:26 UTC
Forecast distribution
Rationale
Full accessMy most likely prediction for the number of seats won by the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections is 201.43 because record-low presidential approval and a slowing economy are expected to drive significant losses that are only partially offset by structural redistricting advantages.
Forecast record
ScenariosFull access4
The # of seats the Republican Party wins in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections
The Democratic Party's lead over the Republican Party in the RealClearPolitics average for the 2026 Generic Congressional Vote on October 31, 2026 >= 6 percentage points
36% chance of this condition
Default: mean 203.89
50% range: 191.85 to 213.13. 80% range: 182.38 to 222.23.
If yes: mean 194.70
50% range: 184.27 to 199.28. 80% range: 177.68 to 207.02.
If no: mean 209.10
50% range: 200.44 to 218.18. 80% range: 190.30 to 226.28.
The U.S. annual inflation rate (CPI YoY) for September 2026 >= 4 %
13% chance of this condition
Default: mean 203.89
50% range: 191.85 to 213.13. 80% range: 182.38 to 222.23.
If yes: mean 199.19
50% range: 185.78 to 205.25. 80% range: 177.68 to 215.55.
If no: mean 204.60
50% range: 192.94 to 214.13. 80% range: 183.75 to 223.42.
The final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for October 2026 >= 50 points
64% chance of this condition
Default: mean 203.89
50% range: 191.85 to 213.13. 80% range: 182.38 to 222.23.
If yes: mean 207.25
50% range: 197.93 to 217.40. 80% range: 187.80 to 225.14.
If no: mean 198.01
50% range: 184.18 to 203.32. 80% range: 176.47 to 214.13.
The daily settlement price of the active month WTI crude oil futures contract on October 30, 2026 >= 85 USD per barrel
31% chance of this condition
Default: mean 203.89
50% range: 191.85 to 213.13. 80% range: 182.38 to 222.23.
If yes: mean 199.15
50% range: 185.78 to 204.95. 80% range: 178.35 to 215.61.
If no: mean 205.99
50% range: 195.91 to 216.15. 80% range: 185.78 to 225.15.
The # of seats the Republican Party wins in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections
The # of seats the Republican Party wins in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections
Forecast context
President Donald Trump is facing political headwinds ahead of the November 2026 midterm elections, driven in part by the ongoing US-Iran conflict and its economic impacts. With his approval rating dropping to around 34% in recent polling, political analysts have highlighted the dimming chances of the Republican Party retaining control of Congress. The U.S. House of Representatives consists of 435 voting seats, and midterm elections historically result in seat losses for the incumbent president's party. The outcome will significantly shape the legislative environment for the remainder of Trump's second term and impact U.S. domestic and foreign policy.
Clarifications
This question resolves as the total number of voting seats won by candidates officially affiliated with the Republican Party in the U.S. House of Representatives during the November 2026 general elections. Resolution will be based on the official election results as compiled by the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives or, if those are not yet available by the scheduled resolution date, by the final race calls made by the Associated Press (AP). Seats won by independents who may caucus with Republicans are not included.
Want the full analysis?
The complete analysis, including full reasoning, news and data sources, and live forecast updates, is available in the Mantic app.