Who the President of Israel first mandates to form a government following the next legislative election
This snapshot shows a condensed version of Mantic's analysis — the full breakdown is available in the Mantic app. The live forecast may have changed.
Gadi Eisenkot
53.9%
As of 27 Sept 2026, 08:54 UTC
Outcome probabilities
Rationale
Full accessI predict a 54% likelihood that Gadi Eisenkot will receive the initial mandate to form a government, driven by an opposition cooperation pact positioning him ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu (40%) in presidential recommendations despite ongoing polling volatility and potential coalition fragmentation.
Forecast record
Question context
Following the Israeli legislative election scheduled for October 27, 2026, the President of Israel will hold consultations with elected party factions and formally mandate a Knesset member to attempt to form a new government. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Gadi Eisenkot, and Naftali Bennett are among the prominent leaders vying for power. Since no single party has ever won an outright majority in Israel, forming a government requires building a coalition of at least 61 seats.
Resolution criteria
This question resolves based on the first individual who is officially mandated by the President of Israel to form a government following the next Israeli legislative election (currently scheduled for October 2026).
The individual does not need to successfully form a government or be sworn in as Prime Minister; they merely need to be the first person officially tasked by the President with doing so after the election. If the election is delayed, the question still applies to the aftermath of the next general election.
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